It’s not easy being a Mets fan. After all, we’re closing in on 30 years without a championship – and the vast majority of seasons since that magical campaign of 1986 have been filled with dreadfully boring, utterly uninspiring baseball.
This year may just be different, though. While they can’t hit worth a lick, the real-world Mets are stocked with tremendous pitching that gives them a chance to win every game. They had a historic winning streak early in the season and have rebounded well from bad stretches; at the All-Star break, they’re right in the thick of the NL East hunt.
At the start of the real MLB season, I began my own Mets campaign with Sony’s excellent MLB 15: The Show. I had no real plan, other than to make my daily three-mile walk on my treadmill tolerable. I made sure to download the most accurate rosters available from Operation Sports (which included the ever-so-important real players from the Mets’ stocked minor league system). I soon discovered that I could get through two full games per session using the fantastic Player Lock option; for the first 5-6 innings of every game, everything is simulated except for my at-bats as first baseman Lucas Duda. From the 6th inning on, I take Player Lock off and play the rest of the game the “normal” way, having full control of each hitter and pitcher. It’s a great way to experience The Show without having to dedicate a full hour to every single affair.
And it’s pretty much taken over my life.
Whenever possible, I hop on my treadmill and jump into the season. Recently, I hit the All-Star break in my virtual campaign and took down a bunch of key stats. I thought it would be interesting to compare how my hybrid simulation of my Mets would compare to the real ones – and wasn’t quite prepared for how accurate some of the results were.
The High Level
In reality, the Mets are 47-42, trailing the Washington Nationals by just two games at the break – thanks to a fortuitous four-game winning streak that’s making all Mets fans feel great at the moment. In my hybrid sim, the Mets are 49-40, six games ahead of the second-place Marlins and six-and-a-half ahead of the Nats. That’s just a two-game difference – an impressive reflection.
Winner – Reality
Injuries and Suspensions
In reality, the Mets have been decimated by injuries across the board. David Wright has barely played, Jenrry Mejia was suspended for PED use for the first half of the year, and Danny Murphy missed a ton of time as well – and those are just the big ones. In my hybrid sim, the Mets were virtually injury-free until mid-June, when three-fifths of the starting rotation went down. Jason deGrom tore his shoulder, Bartolo Colon dislocated his as well, and Dillon Gee fractured his wrist. Yikes. This necessitated the callup of Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz much later in the year than the real-world Mets did. Wilmer Flores is also out for months with a herniated disc. So the second half of the season looks like it will be much tougher than the first.
Winner – Reality
Team Hitting
This is where it gets downright eerie. The real-world Mets are bad at hitting, as are my hybrid sim Mets. Some of this is on me (remember, I take all the team at-bats from the sixth inning on), and some of this is just great video game development. Take a look at these comparisons:
| Real Mets | Hybrid Sim Mets |
| 29th in runs scored (305) | 29th in runs scored (303) |
| 23rd in home runs (71) | 29th in home runs (64) |
| 30th in BA (.232) | 27th in BA (.242) |
| 27th in RBI (292) | 29th in RBI (294) |
| 26th in Stolen Bases (33) | 29th in Stolen Bases (26) |
| 27th in OBP (.297) | 29th in OBP (.301) |
| 29th in Slugging (.358) | 27th in Slugging (.361) |
The numbers are so close as to be staggering. The Sim-Mets scored two runs less than the real ones, drove in two more runs than the real ones, and are within 4 percentage points in OBP and Slugging. They are also ranked almost even across the board. It’s mind-boggling. And depressing!
Winner – Hybrid Sim
Team Pitching
Once again, the stats are close to each other in terms of absolute numbers and rankings. Unfortunately, team WHIP and Batting Average Against aren’t tracked in The Show.
| Real Mets | Hybrid Sim Mets |
| 3rd in ERA (3.23) | 3rd in ERA (3.05) |
| 5th in Saves (30) | 9th in Saves (28) |
| 10th in Strikeouts (699) | 14th in strikeouts (669) |
| T-2nd in Walks (213) | 1st in walks (172) |
Did I mention the Mets have good pitching?
Winner – Hybrid Sim
Individual Hitting Leaders
Again, the numbers are alarmingly close (at least in a few cases). While some players won’t compare – remember, the virtual David Wright has been playing all year for me even as he has been off the field in the real world – others are in lock step with each other.
| Real Mets | Hybrid Sim Mets |
| HR Leaders – Granderson (13), Duda (12) | HR Leaders – Granderson (14), Duda (10) |
| BA Leader – Lagares (.256) | BA Leader – Wright .293 (6 HR, 34 RBI as well) |
| RBI Leader – Duda (38) | RBI Leader – Duda (43) |
Winner – Hybrid Sim
Individual Pitching Leaders
This is where many things fall apart, mostly due to real world injuries and suspensions.
| Real Mets | Hybrid Sim Mets |
| ERA Leader – DeGrom (2.14) | ERA Leader – Gee (2.22) |
| Wins Leader – DeGrom (9) | Wins Leader – Harvey/Niese (10) |
| K Leader – DeGrom (112) | K Leader – Harvey (116) |
Winner – Hybrid Sim
Individual Details
The lower you go at the individual level, the bigger the gap becomes. Thanks to the aforementioned injuries (real word and sim), the differences between some individuals is stark. Others, however, remain kind of amazingly close.
| Real Mets | Hybrid Sim Mets |
| Murphy.277/5/30 | Murphy .204/6/28 |
| Lagares .256/3/25 | Lagares .267/2/29 |
| Flores.252/10/38 | Flores .285/4/28 |
| Cuddyer .244/7/29 | Cuddyer .293/9/27 |
| Granderson .243/13/29 | Granderson .229/14/35 |
| Duda .241/12/38 | Duda .268/10/43 |
| deGrom 9-6/2.14 ERA/0.92 WHIP/112 K/113 IP | deGrom 6-9/4.42 ERA/1.54 WHIP/85 K/106 IP |
| Colon 9-7/4.46/1.23/83 K/105 IP | Colon 5-4/2.71/1.18 WHIP/28 K/69 IP |
| Harvey 8-6/3.07/1.09/109 K/111 IP | Harvey 10-4/2.69 ERA/1.04 WHIP/116 K/130 IP |
| Niese 5-8/3.61/1.38/70 K/104 IP | Niese 10-4/2.43 ERA/1.06 WHIP/76 K/111 IP |
| Familia 27 SV/1.25 ERA/0.9 WHIP/43 K/43 IP | Familia 0 SV/1.49 ERA/0.85 WHIP/49 K/36 IP |
| Mejia 26 SV/2.81 ERA/3 BSV/32 K/32 IP |
In particular, Lucas Duda, Curtis Granderson, and Juan Lagares simultaneous season numbers are right on par with each other. The David Wright Factor remains the biggest differentiator; he has barely played for the real Mets and is kind of struggling with my virtual ones.
On the pitching side, Matt Harvey is the only starter whose numbers closely resemble each other, while the others veer in several directions.
Winner – Reality
In Conclusion
Rarely do any of my sports video game campaigns so closely match reality. Heck, I’ve won at least two dozen Super Bowls with the Philadelphia Eagles. Naturally, this wildly similar streak I have going with my fake Mets vs the real ones means I can’t wait to see what happens next. While I don’t hold out a lot of hope that I can ultimately win a virtual World Series – or that the real Mets can do that this year either – at least it’s a legitimate possibility for the first time in forever.
No matter what, though, one thing is for sure: Reality always wins.
Always.
The Winner – and still champion: Reality