One of our most popular features – simulating big-time real world sports events with their video game representative – is back! This Saturday’s UFC 189 was set to feature one of the most hyped and anticipated fights ever, the outspoken Conor McGregor challenging featherweight champion Jose Aldo. Unfortunately, an injury forced Aldo to withdraw; now McGregor and Chad Mendes will battle for the interim title. That fight heads the card, along with the welterweight championship which is also on the line.

No need to wait until Saturday, though. Lets see what EA Sports UFC (which is 3-0 in our simulations following last month’s event), predicts for UFC 189.

Robbie Lawler (C) vs Rory MacDonald

A rematch is on deck for the welterweight title this weekend as Robbie Lawler and Rory Macdonald look for a definitive resolution from the encounter. They last fought less than two years ago to a razor-thin split-decision that tilted in Lawler’s favor. Their paths diverged at that point, but anyone who follows the sport knew that they would meet again down the line for higher stakes.

Both of these men have similar styles; they look to strike first and are effective finishers on their feet. Expect fireworks in this one, as there are bound to be some heavy shots landed by both fighters. There are only slight advantages to be had on either side – Lawler has the heavier hands and experience edge, while MacDonald is more technically sound and has a more well-rounded skill set. This one should be close. Lets see if the simulation reflects it.

Round One

This was a strong start to the fight. Lawler appears to take this round as he pushed the pace and controlled the center of the octagon for the majority of the round. The exchange at the 0:43 mark shows the back and forth that should continue over the course of the fight.

Round to: Lawler 10-9

Round Two

Rory realized in this round that trying to back Lawler down was not the best idea. He found his rhythm counter-striking and it worked well enough to take the round. This was not terrible for Robbie, but a takedown given up mid-round (2:07) gave this one away.

Round to: MacDonald 10-9

Round Three

This is a tough round to call. Both fighters had answers for what was coming at them, but the slight edge goes to MacDonald as he was able to land with more frequency. He was also able to put a stamp on the round at the (0:05) mark. The judges eat that stuff up.

Round to: MacDonald 10-9

Round Four

This was a rollercoaster. Both men were dropped at points in this frame. MacDonald lands a nasty liver shot at 1:38 that crumbles Lawler, but this is a situation where Lawler thrives. He responds well to pressure and salvages the round with a flurry of his own in the final seconds. Only the clock stopped him from finishing the fight.

Round to: Lawler 10-9

Round Five

No surprise that this would come down to the final round. Lawler survives a rough first minute, then turns it on as he tends to do late in fights and connects for another knockdown at the 1:31 mark. Rory again survives and does score a few points to make this round close. Robbie’s onslaught was still too much in my eyes.

Round to: Lawler 10-9

Reality Check

I see the fight 49-48 in favor of Lawler. Of course, as seems to be the theme so far in this feature, the sim disagrees with me and flips my scoring to MacDonald. I will have to give the game credit, though, as it has produced the most accurate simulation so far. This fight should be nothing if not entertaining, and the simulation reflects it. My fandom won’t allow me to pick against Lawler. At the risk of going 0-4 against the game, I’ll pick Robbie to defend his title in a five round barnburner. I see him turning in another defining round five as he did in the sim, and leaving a winning impression on the judges.

 

Conor McGregor vs Chad Mendes

For the headline event, fortunately a solid replacement was ready to go when Jose Aldo withdrew. Chad Mendes steps in to take the place of the only man ever to defeat him for a shot at the interim title. He faces the sports’ fastest rising star in the brash, and deadly, Conor McGregor.

This looks like the classic wrestler (Mendes) vs striker (McGregor) fight but there are some unknowns in this contest that make it much more intriguing. McGregor has been hand-fed all of his opponents in his UFC run. It’s fairly clear that the brass has been steering him clear of elite wrestlers. Will he be able to stop a NCAA-caliber takedown? If not, what will he offer on the ground to get his title? No one can say for sure at this point.

For Mendes, he has the task of solving a riddle that no one has come close to decoding. His only shortcomings have been against a creative and dynamic striker in Aldo that also presents difficulty in getting to the mat. McGregor’s similar skill set should be of major concern considering that. If he can’t take McGregor down, will he have an answer to the severe reach and height disadvantage he faces? Can he break out of his powerful but slightly stiff striking style and show McGregor something he won’t be expecting?

Round One

There’s a feeling-out process at the start of the fight until McGregor suffers a slip and ends up on his back. He is able to get back to his feet with little trouble though – perhaps a good omen for him in this fight. McGregor makes good use of his unorthodox kicking ability and scores a surprising early knockdown at 3:50. This was clearly Conor’s round. If not for a late takedown by Mendes a case could have even been made for a 10-8 round.

Round to: McGregor 10-9

Round Two

The takedown questions seem to be get answered in this round. McGregor is actively stuffing takedowns and controlling the pace with his kicking range as he demonstrates at the 3:10 mark. Mendes was more competitive in this round, but he is still looking for a way inside McGregor’s contact range.

Round to: McGregor 10-9

Round Three

Legs are the weapon of choice again in the round. McGregor is keeping his opponent off balance and mixing in some accurate hands. His best combination comes at 2:59, and it’s one of many he unleashes. A decision may be off the table at this point for Chad. He needs to look strictly for a knockout in the final frames.

Round to: McGregor 10-9

Round Four

A good round finally gets turned in here by Mendes. He traveled in through McGregor’s range and was willing to take one to give one. He also clicked into wrestler mode, turning in multiple takedowns like seen at 0:52. Being this aggressive is likely his only path left to victory. It did cost him a time or two but he has to get a little reckless if he hopes to finish this fight.

Round to: Mendes 10-9

Round Five

Going for broke backfired on Mendes, as clearly losing a round for the first time in many fights did not sit well with Conor. He could have stayed at range and coasted, but chose to to show his championships stripes. He turns in a dominating round, striking from all angles at 3:37.  This potentially sets up the biggest fight in featherweight, and even MMA, history when McGregor and Aldo finally do meet.

Round to: McGregor 10-9

Reality Check

I think the game has it right here, if only for the desire not to have a future McGregor vs Aldo fight spoiled. McGregor’s tactics in the sim represent sound strategy to deploy against a shorter, more compact Mendes. The only concern I have with the simulation are the instances where Conor gets put on his back. No fighter is going to survive that against a grappler with the kind of power that Mendes possesses. I am staying with the game here and on the “Notorious” Conor hype train. Look for McGregor to win by TKO inside of three rounds.